SC2K4

Match updates for SC2K4

Mon, 2005-05-02 19:43 — creativename

[Graphs: A=Cumulative %, B=% Per Update, C=Overlapping]

PollID	Graph	Entrant 1	Entrant 2
1780	A / B / C	Link	Cloud Strife
1779	A / B / C	Cloud Strife	Samus Aran
1778	A / B / C	Link	Mega Man
1777	A / B / C	Sonic the Hedgehog	Samus Aran
1776	A / B / C	Cloud Strife	Sephiroth
1775	A / B / C	Mega Man	Solid Snake
1774	A / B / C	Link	Crono
1773	A / B / C	Sora	Samus Aran
1772	A / B / C	Sonic the Hedgehog	Dante
1771	A / B / C	Auron	Sephiroth
1770	A / B / C	Cloud Strife	Squall Leonhart
1769	A / B / C	Frog	Solid Snake
1768	A / B / C	Mega Man	Zero
1767	A / B / C	Crono	Mario
1766	A / B / C	Link	Yoshi
1765	A / B / C	Sam Fisher	Samus Aran
1764	A / B / C	Sora	Ryu Hayabusa
1763	A / B / C	Miles "Tails" Prower	Dante
1762	A / B / C	Sonic the Hedgehog	Ryu
1761	A / B / C	Vivi	Sephiroth
1760	A / B / C	Ness	Auron
1759	A / B / C	Kirby	Squall Leonhart
1758	A / B / C	Cloud Strife	Vyse
1757	A / B / C	Knuckles the Echidna	Solid Snake
1756	A / B / C	Frog	Master Chief
1755	A / B / C	Tommy Vercetti	Zero
1754	A / B / C	Mega Man	Tidus
1753	A / B / C	Bowser	Mario
1752	A / B / C	Magus	Crono
1751	A / B / C	Yoshi	Luigi
1750	A / B / C	Link	Ganondorf
1749	A / B / C	Samus Aran	Lara Croft
1748	A / B / C	Sam Fisher	Gordon Freeman
1747	A / B / C	Ryu Hayabusa	Jill Valentine
1746	A / B / C	Sora	HK-47
1745	A / B / C	Dante	Ratchet
1744	A / B / C	Viewtiful Joe	Miles "Tails" Prower
1743	A / B / C	KOS-MOS	Ryu
1742	A / B / C	Sonic the Hedgehog	Terry Bogard
1741	A / B / C	Sephiroth	Sly Cooper
1740	A / B / C	Vivi	Donkey Kong
1739	A / B / C	Auron	Scorpion
1738	A / B / C	Ness	Jak
1737	A / B / C	Squall Leonhart	Bomberman
1736	A / B / C	Kirby	Kain
1735	A / B / C	Vyse	Laharl
1734	A / B / C	Cloud Strife	Duke Nukem
1733	A / B / C	Solid Snake	Tanner
1732	A / B / C	Kefka	Knuckles the Echidna
1731	A / B / C	Master Chief	Crash Bandicoot
1730	A / B / C	Frog	Liquid Snake
1729	A / B / C	Zero	Protoman
1728	A / B / C	Tommy Vercetti	Max Payne
1727	A / B / C	Tidus	Shadow the Hedgehog
1726	A / B / C	Mega Man	Earthworm Jim
1725	A / B / C	Mario	JC Denton
1724	A / B / C	Bowser	Guybrush Threepwood
1723	A / B / C	Crono	Conker
1722	A / B / C	Magus	Luca Blight
1721	A / B / C	Luigi	Pac-Man
1720	A / B / C	Yoshi	Ryo Hazuki
1719	A / B / C	Ganondorf	Alucard
1718	A / B / C	Link	CATS

SC2K4

The SC2K4 SFF-Adjusted Extrapolated Standings

Mon, 2005-05-02 04:57 — creativename

About the SC2K4 SFF-Adjusted Standings

These standings are an attempt to adjust for the influence of Same Fanbase Factor in various Summer Contest 2004 matches.

There were two parts to figuring out the amounts by which to adjust the characters: comparing the affected characters' 2K4 strengths to their 2K3 strengths, and additional constant. This constant was 7.24%—which was the factor implied by keeping Cloud's strength constant across 2K3 and 2K4, and is essentially estimated to be the amount by which Link's strength increased. The method by which I arrived at this constant is rather complicated, but I will try to explain it.

SC2K4

Read more

The SC2K4 Extrapolated Standings

Mon, 2005-05-02 04:41 — creativename

Extrapolated Rank	Character	Expected % Against Link	Expected % Against Link '03	Division	Seed	Expected Seed
1	Link	50.00%	53.38%	Hyrule	1	1
2	Cloud Strife	48.18%	51.61%	Midgar	1	1

SC2K4

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SC2K4 Matches

Mon, 2005-05-02 01:58 — creativename

Click on a field's title to sort by that field.

Basic Information - Show Basic Fields Only
Additonal Information - Click Here to add Date, Round, and Division fields
Expectations Information - Click Here to add Consensus Oracle Challenge Predictions, Board Odds Project Picks, and overall bracket picks
All Fields - Click Here to show all fields

Rank	Poll ID	Match #	Winner's Seed	Winner	Winner's Votes	Winner's Percent	Loser's Seed	Loser	Loser's Votes	Loser's Percent	Total Votes	Vote Difference	Percent Difference
1	1780	63	1	Link	64443	51.82%	1	Cloud Strife	59910	48.18%	124353	4533	3.65%
2	1779	62	1	Cloud Strife	59867	59.01%	2	Samus Aran	41584	40.99%	101451	18283	18.02%
3	1778	61	1	Link	63913	67.61%	1	Mega Man	30622	32.39%	94535	33291	35.22%
4	1777	60	2	Samus Aran	48589	57.51%	1	Sonic the Hedgehog	35897	42.49%	84486	12692	15.02%
5	1776	59	1	Cloud Strife	51179	56.00%	2	Sephiroth	40211	44.00%	91390	10968	12.00%
6	1775	58	1	Mega Man	50116	57.19%	2	Solid Snake	37517	42.81%	87633	12599	14.38%
7	1774	57	1	Link	58840	62.82%	3	Crono	34821	37.18%	93661	24019	25.64%
8	1773	56	2	Samus Aran	57627	65.85%	6	Sora	29880	34.15%	87507	27747	31.71%
9	1772	55	1	Sonic the Hedgehog	49057	62.03%	4	Dante	30033	37.97%	79090	19024	24.05%
10	1771	54	2	Sephiroth	55252	67.70%	3	Auron	26356	32.30%	81608	28896	35.41%
11	1770	53	1	Cloud Strife	68050	76.21%	4	Squall Leonhart	21240	23.79%	89290	46810	52.42%
12	1769	52	2	Solid Snake	44992	51.39%	6	Frog	42563	48.61%	87555	2429	2.77%
13	1768	51	1	Mega Man	46849	56.01%	4	Zero	36800	43.99%	83649	10049	12.01%
14	1767	50	3	Crono	51430	53.24%	2	Mario	45165	46.76%	96595	6265	6.49%
15	1766	49	1	Link	76476	81.74%	5	Yoshi	17082	18.26%	93558	59394	63.48%
16	1765	48	2	Samus Aran	65809	80.97%	7	Sam Fisher	15464	19.03%	81273	50345	61.95%
17	1764	47	6	Sora	49626	61.72%	3	Ryu Hayabusa	30773	38.28%	80399	18853	23.45%
18	1763	46	4	Dante	45109	57.40%	12	Miles Tails Prower	33472	42.60%	78581	11637	14.81%
19	1762	45	1	Sonic the Hedgehog	43795	55.54%	9	Ryu	35057	44.46%	78852	8738	11.08%
20	1761	44	2	Sephiroth	61170	70.25%	7	Vivi	25904	29.75%	87074	35266	40.50%
21	1760	43	3	Auron	53602	65.04%	6	Ness	28806	34.96%	82408	24796	30.09%
22	1759	42	4	Squall Leonhart	51462	55.01%	5	Kirby	42084	44.99%	93546	9378	10.03%
23	1758	41	1	Cloud Strife	74199	81.41%	8	Vyse	16947	18.59%	91146	57252	62.81%
24	1757	40	2	Solid Snake	48481	59.54%	10	Knuckles	32946	40.46%	81427	15535	19.08%
25	1756	39	6	Frog	45524	50.00%	3	Master Chief	45517	50.00%	91041	7	0.01%
26	1755	38	4	Zero	49875	61.84%	5	Tommy Vercetti	30775	38.16%	80650	19100	23.68%
27	1754	37	1	Mega Man	57069	64.78%	8	Tidus	31033	35.22%	88102	26036	29.55%
28	1753	36	2	Mario	56098	70.65%	7	Bowser	23302	29.35%	79400	32796	41.30%
29	1752	35	3	Crono	54361	69.78%	6	Magus	23539	30.22%	77900	30822	39.57%
30	1751	34	5	Yoshi	41151	54.48%	4	Luigi	34382	45.52%	75533	6769	8.96%
31	1750	33	1	Link	77295	87.90%	8	Ganondorf	10640	12.10%	87935	66655	75.80%
32	1749	32	2	Samus Aran	68889	82.39%	15	Lara Croft	14721	17.61%	83610	54168	64.79%
33	1748	31	7	Sam Fisher	41691	55.43%	10	Gordon Freeman	33528	44.57%	75219	8163	10.85%
34	1747	30	3	Ryu Hayabusa	35220	50.02%	14	Jill Valentine	35193	49.98%	70413	27	0.04%
35	1746	29	6	Sora	54034	65.55%	11	HK-47	28392	34.45%	82426	25642	31.11%
36	1745	28	4	Dante	59437	80.28%	13	Ratchet	14602	19.72%	74039	44835	60.56%
37	1744	27	12	Miles Tails Prower	43775	54.80%	5	Viewtiful Joe	36102	45.20%	79877	7673	9.61%
38	1743	26	9	Ryu	52425	62.13%	8	KOS-MOS	31954	37.87%	84379	20471	24.26%
39	1742	25	1	Sonic the Hedgehog	64615	80.84%	16	Terry Bogard	15316	19.16%	79931	49299	61.68%
40	1741	24	2	Sephiroth	77605	86.37%	15	Sly Cooper	12243	13.63%	89848	65362	72.75%
41	1740	23	7	Vivi	48443	56.47%	10	Donkey Kong	37338	43.53%	85781	11105	12.95%
42	1739	22	3	Auron	58404	64.85%	14	Scorpion	31660	35.15%	90064	26744	29.69%
43	1738	21	6	Ness	40130	55.08%	11	Jak	32733	44.92%	72863	7397	10.15%
44	1737	20	4	Squall Leonhart	52540	64.75%	13	Bomberman	28597	35.25%	81137	23943	29.51%
45	1736	19	5	Kirby	52012	64.65%	12	Kain	28436	35.35%	80448	23576	29.31%
46	1735	18	8	Vyse	41440	60.23%	9	Laharl	27368	39.77%	68808	14072	20.45%
47	1734	17	1	Cloud Strife	71329	80.19%	16	Duke Nukem	17624	19.81%	88953	53705	60.37%
48	1733	16	2	Solid Snake	74251	94.30%	15	Tanner	4492	5.70%	78743	69759	88.60%
49	1732	15	10	Knuckles the Echidna	47578	57.46%	7	Kefka	35220	42.54%	82798	12358	14.92%
50	1731	15	3	Master Chief	54469	70.72%	14	Crash Bandicoot	22552	29.28%	77021	31917	41.44%
51	1730	13	6	Frog	43913	50.05%	11	Liquid Snake	43820	49.95%	87733	93	0.10%
52	1729	12	4	Zero	58317	71.72%	13	Protoman	22993	28.28%	81310	35324	43.44%
53	1728	11	5	Tommy Vercetti	48239	61.96%	12	Max Payne	29621	38.04%	77860	18618	23.92%
54	1727	10	8	Tidus	48334	50.81%	9	Shadow the Hedgehog	46788	49.19%	95122	1546	1.62%
55	1726	9	1	Mega Man	70219	82.98%	16	Earthworm Jim	14406	17.02%	84625	55813	65.96%
56	1725	8	2	Mario	65184	83.54%	15	JC Denton	12847	16.46%	78031	52337	67.08%
57	1724	7	7	Bowser	61731	82.99%	10	Guybrush Threepwood	12652	17.01%	74383	49079	65.98%
58	1723	6	3	Crono	62375	77.99%	14	Conker	17605	22.01%	79980	44770	55.98%
59	1722	5	6	Magus	57128	81.04%	11	Luca Blight	13367	18.96%	70495	43761	62.08%
60	1721	4	4	Luigi	51008	67.73%	13	Pac-Man	24299	32.27%	75307	26709	35.46%
61	1720	3	5	Yoshi	60057	76.40%	12	Ryo Hazuki	18551	23.60%	78608	41506	52.80%
62	1719	2	8	Ganondorf	50045	57.16%	9	Alucard	37512	42.84%	87557	12533	14.31%
63	1718	1	1	Link	72344	87.83%	16	CATS	10025	12.17%	82369	62319	75.66%

NOTES:
* - Bracket Prediction numbers are estimates based on the numbers found on the "Correct Picks by Battle" percentages found on the Contest Statistics page, and the number of entries for each contest. These estimates could be off by +/- 10 brackets. Based on 16,764 brackets for SC2K2, 41,059 brackets in Summer 2K3, 40,940 in Spring 2K4, 33,221 in Summer 2K4, 24,748 in Spring 2K5, 33,793 in Summer 2K5, 46,198 in Summer 2K6, 42,646 in Fall 2K6.
1 - Original site layout
2 - Original site layout, sponsored poll displacing contest poll
3 - Xenogears vs. Pokemon match: repeated due to voting bug
4 - Kingdom Hearts vs. Soul Calibur match: Site layout switched around noon during this match
5 - Vice City vs. Knights of the Old Republic match: two-day match
6 - Match was 15 minutes short - delayed start
7 - Match was roughly 30 minutes short - site downtime from after 10:05pm to before 10:35pm EST
8 - Match was 25 hours due to Dalight Savings Time

SC2K4

SC2K4 Bracket

Sun, 2005-05-01 19:34 — creativename

The Summer 2004 Contest Bracket

1 \| Link 72344
	1 \| Link 77295
16 \| CATS 10025
		1 \| Link 76476
8 \| Ganondorf 50045
	8 \| Ganondorf 10640
9 \| Alucard 37512
			1 \| Link 58840
5 \| Yoshi 60057
	5 \| Yoshi 41151
12 \| Ryo Hazuki 18551
		5 \| Yoshi 17082
4 \| Luigi 51008
	4 \| Luigi 34382
13 \| Pac-Man 24299
				1 \| Link 63913
6 \| Magus 57128
	6 \| Magus 23539
11 \| Luca 13367
		3 \| Crono 51430
3 \| Crono 62375
	3 \| Crono 54361
14 \| Conker 17605
			3 \| Crono 34821
7 \| Bowser 61731
	7 \| Bowser 23302
10 \| Guybrush Threepwood 12652
		2 \| Mario 45165
2 \| Mario 65184
	2 \| Mario 56098
15 \| JC Denton 12847
					1 \| Link 64443
1 \| Mega Man 70219
	1 \| Mega Man 57069
16 \| Earthworm Jim 14406
		1 \| Mega Man 46849
8 \| Tidus 48334
	8 \| Tidus 31033
9 \| Shadow the Hedgehog 46788
			1 \| Mega Man 50116
5 \| Tommy Vercetti 48239
	5 \| Tommy Vercetti 30775
12 \| Max Payne 29621
		4 \| Zero 36800
4 \| Zero 58317
	4 \| Zero 49875
13 \| Protoman 22993
				1 \| Mega Man 30622
6 \| Frog 43913
	6 \| Frog 45524
11 \| Liquid Snake 43820
		6 \| Frog 42563
3 \| Master Chief 54469
	3 \| Master Chief 45517
14 \| Crash Bandicoot 22552
			2 \| Solid Snake 37517
7 \| Kefka 35220
	10 \| Knuckles 32946
10 \| Knuckles 47578
		2 \| Solid Snake 44992
2 \| Solid Snake 74251
	2 \| Solid Snake 48481
15 \| Tanner 4492
						1 \| Link
1 \| Cloud Strife 71329
	1 \| Cloud Strife 74199
16 \| Duke Nukem 17624
		1 \| Cloud Strife 68050
8 \| Vyse 41440
	8 \| Vyse 16947
9 \| Laharl 27368
			1 \| Cloud Strife 51179
5 \| Kirby 52012
	5 \| Kirby 42084
12 \| Kain 28436
		4 \| Squall Leonhart 21240
4 \| Squall Leonhart 52540
	4 \| Squall Leonhart 51462
13 \| Bomberman 28597
				1 \| Cloud Strife 59867
6 \| Ness 40130
	6 \| Ness 28806
11 \| Jak 32733
		3 \| Auron 26356
3 \| Auron 58404
	3 \| Auron 53602
14 \| Scorpion 31660
			2 \| Sephiroth 40211
7 \| Vivi 48443
	7 \| Vivi 25904
10 \| Donkey Kong 37338
		2 \| Sephiroth 55252
2 \| Sephiroth 77605
	2 \| Sephiroth 61170
15 \| Sly Cooper 12243
					1 \| Cloud Strife 59910
1 \| Sonic the Hedgehog 64615
	1 \| Sonic the Hedgehog 43795
16 \| Terry Bogard 15316
		1 \| Sonic the Hedgehog 49057
8 \| KOS-MOS 31954
	9 \| Ryu 35057
9 \| Ryu 52425
			1 \| Sonic the Hedgehog 35897
5 \| Viewtiful Joe 36102
	12 \| Miles 'Tails' Prower 33472
12 \| Miles 'Tails' Prower 43775
		4 \| Dante 30033
4 \| Dante 59437
	4 \| Dante 45109
13 \| Ratchet 14602
				2 \| Samus Aran 41584
6 \| Sora 54034
	6 \| Sora 49626
11 \| HK-47 28392
		6 \| Sora 29880
3 \| Ryu Hayabusa 35220
	3 \| Ryu Hayabusa 30773
14 \| Jill Valentine 35193
			2 \| Samus Aran 48589
7 \| Sam Fisher 41691
	7 \| Sam Fisher 15464
10 \| Gordon Freeman 33528
		2 \| Samus Aran 57627
2 \| Samus Aran 68889
	2 \| Samus Aran 65809
15 \| Lara Croft 14721

SC2K4

1 \| Link 72344
	1 \| Link 77295
16 \| CATS 10025
		1 \| Link 76476
8 \| Ganondorf 50045
	8 \| Ganondorf 10640
9 \| Alucard 37512
			1 \| Link 58840
5 \| Yoshi 60057
	5 \| Yoshi 41151
12 \| Ryo Hazuki 18551
		5 \| Yoshi 17082
4 \| Luigi 51008
	4 \| Luigi 34382
13 \| Pac-Man 24299
				1 \| Link 63913
6 \| Magus 57128
	6 \| Magus 23539
11 \| Luca 13367
		3 \| Crono 51430
3 \| Crono 62375
	3 \| Crono 54361
14 \| Conker 17605
			3 \| Crono 34821
7 \| Bowser 61731
	7 \| Bowser 23302
10 \| Guybrush Threepwood 12652
		2 \| Mario 45165
2 \| Mario 65184
	2 \| Mario 56098
15 \| JC Denton 12847
					1 \| Link 64443
1 \| Mega Man 70219
	1 \| Mega Man 57069
16 \| Earthworm Jim 14406
		1 \| Mega Man 46849
8 \| Tidus 48334
	8 \| Tidus 31033
9 \| Shadow the Hedgehog 46788
			1 \| Mega Man 50116
5 \| Tommy Vercetti 48239
	5 \| Tommy Vercetti 30775
12 \| Max Payne 29621
		4 \| Zero 36800
4 \| Zero 58317
	4 \| Zero 49875
13 \| Protoman 22993
				1 \| Mega Man 30622
6 \| Frog 43913
	6 \| Frog 45524
11 \| Liquid Snake 43820
		6 \| Frog 42563
3 \| Master Chief 54469
	3 \| Master Chief 45517
14 \| Crash Bandicoot 22552
			2 \| Solid Snake 37517
7 \| Kefka 35220
	10 \| Knuckles 32946
10 \| Knuckles 47578
		2 \| Solid Snake 44992
2 \| Solid Snake 74251
	2 \| Solid Snake 48481
15 \| Tanner 4492
						1 \| Link
1 \| Cloud Strife 71329
	1 \| Cloud Strife 74199
16 \| Duke Nukem 17624
		1 \| Cloud Strife 68050
8 \| Vyse 41440
	8 \| Vyse 16947
9 \| Laharl 27368
			1 \| Cloud Strife 51179
5 \| Kirby 52012
	5 \| Kirby 42084
12 \| Kain 28436
		4 \| Squall Leonhart 21240
4 \| Squall Leonhart 52540
	4 \| Squall Leonhart 51462
13 \| Bomberman 28597
				1 \| Cloud Strife 59867
6 \| Ness 40130
	6 \| Ness 28806
11 \| Jak 32733
		3 \| Auron 26356
3 \| Auron 58404
	3 \| Auron 53602
14 \| Scorpion 31660
			2 \| Sephiroth 40211
7 \| Vivi 48443
	7 \| Vivi 25904
10 \| Donkey Kong 37338
		2 \| Sephiroth 55252
2 \| Sephiroth 77605
	2 \| Sephiroth 61170
15 \| Sly Cooper 12243
					1 \| Cloud Strife 59910
1 \| Sonic the Hedgehog 64615
	1 \| Sonic the Hedgehog 43795
16 \| Terry Bogard 15316
		1 \| Sonic the Hedgehog 49057
8 \| KOS-MOS 31954
	9 \| Ryu 35057
9 \| Ryu 52425
			1 \| Sonic the Hedgehog 35897
5 \| Viewtiful Joe 36102
	12 \| Miles 'Tails' Prower 33472
12 \| Miles 'Tails' Prower 43775
		4 \| Dante 30033
4 \| Dante 59437
	4 \| Dante 45109
13 \| Ratchet 14602
				2 \| Samus Aran 41584
6 \| Sora 54034
	6 \| Sora 49626
11 \| HK-47 28392
		6 \| Sora 29880
3 \| Ryu Hayabusa 35220
	3 \| Ryu Hayabusa 30773
14 \| Jill Valentine 35193
			2 \| Samus Aran 48589
7 \| Sam Fisher 41691
	7 \| Sam Fisher 15464
10 \| Gordon Freeman 33528
		2 \| Samus Aran 57627
2 \| Samus Aran 68889
	2 \| Samus Aran 65809
15 \| Lara Croft 14721

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