Match updates for Spring 2K4

Mon, 02 May 2005 19:43:26 -0400

[Graphs: A=Cumulative %, B=% Per Update, C=Overlapping]

PollID	Graph	Entrant 1	Entrant 2
1663	A / B / C	Chrono Trigger	Final Fantasy VII
1662	A / B / C	Final Fantasy VII	Super Smash Bros. Melee
1661	A / B / C	Super Mario Bros. 3	Chrono Trigger
1660	A / B / C	Starcraft	Super Smash Bros. Melee
1659	A / B / C	Final Fantasy VII	The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
1658	A / B / C	Chrono Trigger	The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
1657	A / B / C	Super Mario Bros. 3	The Legend of Zelda
1656	A / B / C	Final Fantasy X	Super Smash Bros. Melee
1655	A / B / C	Starcraft	The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
1654	A / B / C	Goldeneye	The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
1653	A / B / C	Final Fantasy VII	Metal Gear Solid
1652	A / B / C	The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past	Final Fantasy III (VI)
1651	A / B / C	Chrono Trigger	Super Mario World
1650	A / B / C	The Legend of Zelda	Tetris
1649	A / B / C	Super Mario Bros. 3	Final Fantasy
1648	A / B / C	Grand Theft Auto: Vice City	Super Smash Bros. Melee
1647	A / B / C	Final Fantasy Tactics Advance	Final Fantasy X
1646	A / B / C	The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker	Metroid Prime
1645	A / B / C	Starcraft	Kingdom Hearts
1644	A / B / C	Super Mario 64	The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
1643	A / B / C	Castlevania: Symphony of the Night	Goldeneye
1642	A / B / C	Final Fantasy Tactics	Metal Gear Solid
1641	A / B / C	Final Fantasy VII	Xenogears
1640	A / B / C	Doom	Final Fantasy III (VI)
1639	A / B / C	The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past	Super Metroid
1638	A / B / C	Sonic the Hedgehog 2	Super Mario World
1637	A / B / C	Chrono Trigger	Super Mario RPG
1636	A / B / C	Pong	Tetris
1635	A / B / C	Donkey Kong	The Legend of Zelda
1634	A / B / C	Contra	Final Fantasy
1633	A / B / C	Super Mario Bros. 3	Metroid
1632	A / B / C	Super Smash Bros. Melee	Metal Gear Solid 2
1631	A / B / C	Grand Theft Auto: Vice City	Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
1630	A / B / C	Final Fantasy X	Shenmue
1629	A / B / C	Final Fantasy Tactics Advance	Fire Emblem
1628	A / B / C	Metroid Prime	Half-Life
1627	A / B / C	The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker	Skies of Arcadia
1626	A / B / C	Soul Calibur	Kingdom Hearts
1625	A / B / C	Halo: Combat Evolved	Starcraft
1624	A / B / C	The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time	Fallout 2
1623	A / B / C	Super Mario 64	NiGHTS into dreams...
1622	A / B / C	Goldeneye	Panzer Dragoon Saga

The Spring 2K4 SFF-Adjusted Extrapolated Standings

Mon, 02 May 2005 04:36:45 -0400

The following matches were widely believed to cause much inaccuracy in the regular extrapolated standings, due to the very likely influence of Same Fanbase Factor. These SFF-adjusted standings attempt to rectify this by adjusting the losers upwards by a substantial amount. Note that this amount then "trickles down" and raises up any games that they were beneath them in the bracket tree. The adjustment factor for these games was 60%—a number based on no solid data whatsoever. This was simply something I thought was reasonable and simple. Thus, while it is believed these standings should be more accurate than the un-adjusted standings, they are quite "gimmicked".

The Spring 2K4 Extrapolated Standings

Mon, 02 May 2005 04:15:01 -0400

SpC2K4 Matches

Mon, 02 May 2005 02:04:13 -0400

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Expectations Information - Click Here to add Consensus Oracle Challenge Predictions, Board Odds Project Picks, and overall bracket picks
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Extrapolated Rank	Game	Expected % Against Final Fantasy VII	Division	Seed	Expected Seed
1	Final Fantasy VII	50.00%	32-64	1	1
2	The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time	46.18%	32-64	2	2
3	Chrono Trigger	41.76%	16	1	1

Rank	Poll ID	Match #	Winner's Seed	Winner	Winner's Votes	Winner's Percent	Loser's Seed	Loser	Loser's Votes	Loser's Percent	Total Votes	Vote Difference	Percent Difference	Notes
1	1663	63	1	Final Fantasy VII	58077	58.24%	1	Chrono Trigger	41647	41.76%	99724	16430	16.48%
2	1662	62	1	Final Fantasy VII	54264	62.43%	2	Super Smash Bros. Melee	32654	37.57%	86918	21610	24.86%
3	1661	61	1	Chrono Trigger	45479	52.23%	1	Super Mario Bros. 3	41598	47.77%	87077	3881	4.46%
4	1660	60	2	Super Smash Bros. Melee	49082	50.27%	16	Starcraft	48548	49.73%	97630	534	0.55%
5	1659	59	1	Final Fantasy VII	52621	53.82%	2	Ocarina of Time	45145	46.18%	97766	7476	7.65%
6	1658	58	1	Chrono Trigger	49494	50.18%	6	A Link to the Past	49132	49.82%	98626	362	0.37%
7	1657	57	1	Super Mario Bros. 3	44312	56.78%	3	The Legend of Zelda	33734	43.22%	78046	10578	13.55%
8	1656	56	2	Super Smash Bros. Melee	41798	50.94%	3	Final Fantasy X	40253	49.06%	82051	1545	1.88%
9	1655	55	16	Starcraft	41480	50.10%	5	The Wind Waker	41309	49.90%	82789	171	0.21%
10	1654	54	2	Ocarina of Time	52945	73.05%	3	Goldeneye	19536	26.95%	72481	33409	46.09%
11	1653	53	1	Final Fantasy VII	56861	71.30%	4	Metal Gear Solid	22884	28.70%	79745	33977	42.61%
12	1652	52	6	A Link to the Past	42628	52.66%	2	Final Fantasy VI	38326	47.34%	80954	4302	5.31%
13	1651	51	1	Chrono Trigger	45047	59.01%	4	Super Mario World	31294	40.99%	76341	13753	18.02%
14	1650	50	3	The Legend of Zelda	52197	74.57%	2	Tetris	17801	25.43%	69998	34396	49.14%
15	1649	49	1	Super Mario Bros. 3	43977	59.60%	4	Final Fantasy	29813	40.40%	73790	14164	19.20%
16	1648	48	2	Super Smash Bros. Melee	37031	53.54%	7	Vice City	32138	46.46%	69169	4893	7.07%
17	1647	47	3	Final Fantasy X	43397	66.54%	6	Final Fantasy Tactics Advance	21821	33.46%	65218	21576	33.08%
18	1646	46	5	Wind Waker	36909	55.22%	4	Metroid Prime	29935	44.78%	66844	6974	10.43%
19	1645	45	16	Starcraft	40698	53.57%	9	Kingdom Hearts	35274	46.43%	75972	5424	7.14%
20	1644	44	2	Ocarina of Time	60064	76.26%	7	Super Mario 64	18697	23.74%	78761	41367	52.52%
21	1643	43	3	Goldeneye	44447	59.28%	11	Symphony of the Night	30528	40.72%	74975	13919	18.56%
22	1642	42	4	Metal Gear Solid	40330	50.02%	5	Final Fantasy Tactics	40292	49.98%	80622	38	0.05%
23	1641	41	1	Final Fantasy VII	57876	80.03%	9	Xenogears	14445	19.97%	72321	43431	60.05%
24	1640	40	2	Final Fantasy VI	54078	72.72%	10	Doom	20285	27.28%	74363	33793	45.44%
25	1639	39	6	A Link to the Past	53413	74.00%	3	Super Metroid	18763	26.00%	72176	34650	48.01%
26	1638	38	4	Super Mario World	51911	70.57%	5	Sonic 2	21647	29.43%	73558	30264	41.14%
27	1637	37	1	Chrono Trigger	53516	67.06%	8	Super Mario RPG	26288	32.94%	79804	27228	34.12%
28	1636	36	2	Tetris	49723	73.47%	7	Pong	17956	26.53%	67679	31767	46.94%
29	1635	35	3	The Legend of Zelda	64193	87.04%	6	Donkey Kong	9559	12.96%	73752	54634	74.08%
30	1634	34	4	Final Fantasy	55895	70.05%	12	Contra	23901	29.95%	79796	31994	40.09%
31	1633	33	1	Super Mario Bros. 3	63246	78.04%	8	Metroid	17799	21.96%	81045	45447	56.08%
32	1632	32	2	Super Smash Bros. Melee	42494	56.72%	15	Metal Gear Solid 2	32429	43.28%	74923	10065	13.43%
33	1631	31	7	Vice City	54055	60.32%	10	Knights of the Old Republic	35564	39.68%	89619	18491	20.63%	5
34	1630	30	3	Final Fantasy X	57663	74.48%	14	Shenmue	19761	25.52%	77424	37902	48.95%
35	1629	29	6	Final Fantasy Tactics Advance	43716	66.36%	11	Fire Emblem	22159	33.64%	65875	21557	32.72%
36	1628	28	4	Metroid Prime	41354	56.16%	13	Half-Life	32288	43.84%	73642	9066	12.31%
37	1627	27	5	The Wind Waker	56544	74.71%	12	Skies of Arcadia	19143	25.29%	75687	37401	49.42%
38	1626	26	9	Kingdom Hearts	45620	50.60%	8	Soul Calibur	44532	49.40%	90152	1088	1.21%	4
39	1625	25	16	Starcraft	56631	50.17%	1	Halo	56258	49.83%	112889	373	0.33%	1
40	1624	24	2	Ocarina of Time	82903	86.31%	15	Fallout 2	13150	13.69%	96053	69753	72.62%	1
41	1623	23	7	Super Mario 64	69209	84.83%	10	NiGHTS into dreams�	12375	15.17%	81584	56834	69.66%	1
42	1622	22	3	Goldeneye	61079	80.81%	14	Panzer Dragoon Saga	14504	19.19%	75583	46575	61.62%	1
43	1621	21	11	Symphony of the Night	40813	53.18%	6	Perfect Dark	35930	46.82%	76743	4883	6.36%	1
44	1620	20	4	Metal Gear Solid	52745	70.62%	13	Resident Evil	21943	29.38%	74688	30802	41.24%	1
45	1619	19	5	Final Fantasy Tactics	60361	76.03%	12	Dance Dance Revolution	19029	23.97%	79390	41332	52.06%	1
46	1618	18	9	Xenogears	40495	57.95%	8	Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal	29381	42.05%	69876	11114	15.91%	3
47	1617	17	1	Final Fantasy VII	91749	85.63%	16	Suikoden II	15401	14.37%	107150	76348	71.25%	1
48	1616	16	2	Final Fantasy VI	70292	73.08%	15	Mortal Kombat	25894	26.92%	96186	44398	46.16%	1
49	1615	15	10	Doom	49291	57.04%	7	Earthbound	37127	42.96%	86418	12164	14.08%	1
50	1614	14	3	Super Metroid	70520	83.29%	14	Phantasy Star IV	14144	16.71%	84664	56376	66.59%	1
51	1613	13	6	A Link to the Past	86690	91.15%	11	Gunstar Heroes	8418	8.85%	95108	78272	82.30%	1
52	1612	12	4	Super Mario World	79257	81.47%	13	The Simpsons	18028	18.53%	97285	61229	62.94%	1
53	1611	11	5	Sonic 2	78387	80.71%	12	Shining Force	18739	19.29%	97126	59648	61.41%	1
54	1610	10	8	Super Mario RPG	54390	56.24%	9	Street Fighter II	42314	43.76%	96704	12076	12.49%	1
55	1609	9	1	Chrono Trigger	71697	79.39%	16	Secret of Mana	18610	20.61%	90307	53087	58.79%	1
56	1608	8	2	Tetris	66124	78.25%	15	Galaga	18377	21.75%	84501	47747	56.50%	1
57	1607	7	7	Pong	57674	68.01%	10	River City Ransom	27130	31.99%	84804	30544	36.02%	1
58	1606	6	3	The Legend of Zelda	92894	95.20%	14	Adventure	4686	4.80%	97580	88208	90.40%	1
59	1605	5	6	Donkey Kong	48587	50.07%	11	Duck Hunt	48444	49.93%	97031	143	0.15%	1
60	1604	4	4	Final Fantasy	86839	87.63%	13	Pitfall	12256	12.37%	99095	74583	75.26%	1
61	1603	3	12	Contra	55593	61.02%	5	Phantasy Star	35513	38.98%	91106	20080	22.04%	1
62	1602	2	8	Metroid	49837	68.51%	9	Pac-Man	22906	31.49%	72743	26931	37.02%	2
63	1601	1	1	Super Mario Bros. 3	61359	82.30%	16	Metal Gear	13197	17.70%	74556	48162	64.60%	2

NOTES:
* - Bracket Prediction numbers are estimates based on the numbers found on the "Correct Picks by Battle" percentages found on the Contest Statistics page, and the number of entries for each contest. These estimates could be off by +/- 10 brackets. Based on 16,764 brackets for SC2K2, 41,059 brackets in Summer 2K3, 40,940 in Spring 2K4, 33,221 in Summer 2K4, 24,748 in Spring 2K5, 33,793 in Summer 2K5, 46,198 in Summer 2K6, 42,646 in Fall 2K6.
1 - Original site layout
2 - Original site layout, sponsored poll displacing contest poll
3 - Xenogears vs. Pokemon match: repeated due to voting bug
4 - Kingdom Hearts vs. Soul Calibur match: Site layout switched around noon during this match
5 - Vice City vs. Knights of the Old Republic match: two-day match
6 - Match was 15 minutes short - delayed start
7 - Match was roughly 30 minutes short - site downtime from after 10:05pm to before 10:35pm EST
8 - Match was 25 hours due to Dalight Savings Time

GameFAQsContests.com - SpC2K4

Match updates for Spring 2K4

The Spring 2K4 SFF-Adjusted Extrapolated Standings

The Spring 2K4 Extrapolated Standings

SpC2K4 Matches