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The Spring 2K4 SFF-Adjusted Extrapolated Standings

Mon, 2005-05-02 04:31 — creativename

The following matches were widely believed to cause much inaccuracy in the regular extrapolated standings, due to the very likely influence of Same Fanbase Factor. These SFF-adjusted standings attempt to rectify this by adjusting the losers upwards by a substantial amount. Note that this amount then "trickles down" and raises up any games that they were beneath them in the bracket tree. The adjustment factor for these games was 60%—a number based on no solid data whatsoever. This was simply something I thought was reasonable and simple. Thus, while it is believed these standings should be more accurate than the un-adjusted standings, they are quite "gimmicked".

The games receiving a 60% (i.e., scaled upwards by a factor of 1.6) boost, with the game they lost to in parantheses:

  • Mario 64 (Ocarina of Time)
  • Super Metroid (A Link to the Past)
  • Donkey Kong (The Legend of Zelda)
  • Metroid (Super Mario Bros. 3)

There was also a relatively small upwards adjustment of 7.5% made to The Legend of Zelda (for its match against Super Mario Bros. 3).

The Same Fanbase Factor Adjusted Spring 2K4 Extrapolated Standings

Extrapolated Rank Game Expected % Against Final Fantasy VII Division Seed Expected Seed
1 Final Fantasy VII
50.00%
 32-64 1 1
2 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
46.18%
 32-64 2 2
3 Chrono Trigger
41.76%
 16 1 1
4 The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
41.61%
 16 6 2
5 Super Mario Bros. 3
39.90%
 8 1 1
6 Final Fantasy III (VI)
39.40%
 16 2 3
7 Super Smash Bros. Melee
37.57%
 128 2 1
8 Starcraft
37.36%
 128 16 2
9 The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
37.29%
 128 5 3
10 Halo: Combat Evolved
37.24%
 128 1 4
11 The Legend of Zelda
37.08%
 8 3 2
12 Final Fantasy X
36.86%
 128 3 5
13 Super Mario 64
35.08%
 32-64 7 3
14 Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
34.91%
 128 7 6
15 Kingdom Hearts
34.70%
 128 9 7
16 Super Metroid
34.61%
 16 3 4
17 Soul Calibur
34.28%
 128 8 8
18 Super Mario World
34.24%
 16 4 5
19 Metroid Prime
33.40%
 128 4 9
20 Metal Gear Solid 2
32.52%
 128 15 10
21 Final Fantasy
32.24%
 8 4 3
22 Half-Life
29.28%
 128 13 11
23 Metal Gear Solid
28.70%
 32-64 4 4
24 Final Fantasy Tactics
28.68%
 32-64 5 5
25 Metroid
28.04%
 8 8 4
26 Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
27.71%
 128 10 12
27 Super Mario RPG
27.51%
 16 8 6
28 Goldeneye
24.89%
 32-64 3 6
29 Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
24.67%
 128 6 13
30 Street Fighter II
24.08%
 16 9 7
31 Doom
21.49%
 16 10 8
32 Mortal Kombat
21.21%
 16 15 9
33 Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
20.27%
 32-64 11 7
34 Sonic the Hedgehog 2
20.15%
 16 5 10
35 Xenogears
19.97%
 32-64 9 8
36 Contra
19.31%
 8 12 5
37 Perfect Dark
18.98%
 32-64 6 9
38 Skies of Arcadia
18.86%
 128 12 14
39 Tetris
18.86%
 8 2 6
40 Shenmue
18.82%
 128 14 15
41 Earthbound
18.47%
 16 7 11
42 Pac-Man
17.66%
 8 9 7
43 Secret of Mana
17.21%
 16 16 12
44 Resident Evil
16.86%
 32-64 13 10
45 Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal
16.80%
 32-64 8 11
46 Fire Emblem
16.59%
 128 11 16
47 Donkey Kong
15.38%
 8 6 8
48 Duck Hunt
15.36%
 8 11 9
49 Phantasy Star
15.06%
 8 5 10
50 Suikoden II
14.37%
 32-64 16 12
51 Metal Gear
14.13%
 8 16 11
52 Dance Dance Revolution
13.75%
 32-64 12 13
53 The Simpsons
12.69%
 16 13 13
54 Fallout 2
12.64%
 32-64 15 14
55 Phantasy Star IV
11.57%
 16 14 14
56 NiGHTS into dreams...
10.64%
 32-64 10 15
57 Pong
10.01%
 8 7 12
58 Panzer Dragoon Saga
09.55%
 32-64 14 16
59 Galaga
08.20%
 8 15 13
60 Pitfall
07.98%
 8 13 14
61 Shining Force
07.78%
 16 12 15
62 Gunstar Heroes
07.37%
 16 11 16
63 River City Ransom
06.40%
 8 10 15
64 Adventure
03.56%
 8 14 16